TORONTO — HVS has released its 2018 Hotel Valuation Index, which predicts continued value growth through 2021.
The Canadian lodging industry has enjoyed 106 consecutive months of RevPAR growth — the longest period of sustained growth on record.
The report notes that economic indicators for Canada are positive for 2018, especially with the rebound of the oil and gas sector. Based on the performance data currently available, demand is projected to grow at twice the rate of supply, supporting a 5.6-per-cent increase in RevPAR, which is projected to exceed the $100 mark for the second consecutive year and hit a new record of slightly more than $109.
The national per-room value is also expected in 2018, with HVS predicting an increase of 7.5 per cent from the 2017 value of $133,389. Significant growth in the Toronto Airport West, Toronto Downtown, and Vancouver Downtown markets — projected at approximately 20 per cent for each market — is noted as a key contributor to national growth.
Airport markets are proving to be among the country’s value-growth leaders, partially due to compression in downtown markets. For 2018, the Hotel Valuation Index (HVI) that the Toronto Airport West market achieved the greatest growth in hotel value, with a projected increase of 25.1 per cent.
With Canada projected to sustain a two-per-cent increase in GDP in 2019, the national per-room value is projected to increase by close to five per cent in the coming year to approximately $150,200. In 2019, the country is also expected to experience a 1.7-per-cent increase in national room supply (8,067 rooms) — the highest increase since 2005. However, this figure does not account for supply being taken out of inventory and being converted to alternative uses. Given the strong barriers to entry in the Vancouver and Toronto markets, the largest supply growth will take place in less-saturated primary markets. Projects in Calgary, Ottawa, Edmonton and Montreal will account for one-third of the new supply.
The complete report, including market breakdowns, is available at hvs.com.